New Zealand a brake on banking
A flap over the state of business confidence and the profit dampening influence of its new Labour government can only hamper the earnings outlook for Australian banks and insurers running a big business in New Zealand.The ANZ headline survey number fell to -50.3 from -44.9 in July, Sean Keane of Triple T Consulting related in a bulletin for Credit Suisse last night.This was the weakest reading in the headline index since May 2008, Keane said, "and triggered an immediate 25 point selloff in the NZD/USD exchange rate. "The initial fall was limited by the fact that the Own Activity index held at +3.8 per cent in August, a reading that was flat versus the prior month. Traders were initially inclined to limit their negative reaction to the headline reading because the Own Activity number held its prior level and remains above the zero line."The Kiwi did fall further however as the details of the survey showed a generalised softening in sentiment."ANZ reported that the manufacturing sector fell below construction as the least confident sector in the survey, whilst the services sector remained the most optimistic. "The latte economy continues to do reasonably well in Auckland, whilst the big impactful areas that drive real economic activity are looking increasingly poorly," Keane wrote."Remarkably, manufacturing was the most optimistic sector of the economy back in April."The survey also revealed that expectations for investment have fallen into negative territory (-5 per cent), something that ANZ highlighted as being quite rare for this particular series. "At the same time Employment intentions fell to -6 per cent, with all surveyed sectors reporting negative numbers. On the pricing and inflation indicators the measure of Pricing Intentions was down by 2 per cent to +27 per cent (This is still being led by construction). Meanwhile inflation expectations were flat at +2.2 per cent."