No house price moves is good news
One of the main conclusions from a Standard and Poor's luncheon briefing this week on the property market and its effects on the banking sector in Australia is that no major movements are likely for either house prices or ratings action in the near future.Erin Kitson, director of structured finance ratings at S&P, noted that RMBS mortgage arrears were still tracking at around one per cent in major markets such as Sydney, but observed, nevertheless, that: "We are not expecting this to translate into a material aspect such as defaults and employment outlook is still positive.""Obviously higher loan to value borrowers are more at risk. The other categories that are higher up the cohorts of 'at risk' borrowers are interest-only borrowers, along with those who have loans pre-2015 when underwriting standards were not as strict as they are now," Kitson said.Sharad Jain, director financial institutions at S&P, conceded there was, at the bank level, evidence of elevated arrears from problem areas, "but this was largely limited to pockets, even for regional banks," he said.Data from property industry information provider Corelogic backs this up, with the largest falls seemingly restricted to niches such as the premium end of the market, defined as the top quartile of prices.A CoreLogic report for the year to July 2018, published yesterday, indicated that national dwelling values slipped 0.6 per cent over the month of July, and 1.6 per cent lower over the past twelve months. Some markets, notably Sydney and Melbourne, saw prices drop, while other cities saw growth rates slow but stay positive.Since peaking in September last year, the Australian housing market has recorded a cumulative 1.9 per cent fall in value, which CoreLogic said was a relatively mild downturn to date considering values remain 31 per cent higher than they were five years ago."We can't see any factors that may halt or reverse the housing markets trajectory of subtle declines over the second half of 2018. The availability of housing credit has been a significant factor contributing to this slowdown, however there are a variety of hurdles contributing to slower conditions," said CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless."From a credit perspective, the latest credit aggregates from the Reserve Bank of Australia highlight that owner occupier lending has continued to grow at a relatively strong pace; up almost eight per cent over the twelve months to June. "The same data highlights that the slowdown in credit growth is attributable almost entirely to less investment lending, where growth is tracking at a record low of 1.6 per cent annually."Additionally, Lawless said, market factors such as low rental yields and dim prospects for short to medium term capital gains were also likely to quell investment demand.