Originations flagging for mortgage bellwether
The August 2008 sales volumes for Australian Finance Group, at $1.9 billion, was the lowest level of sales for the country's largest mortgage aggregator since December 2006, with the total value down over a third on the $3 billion achieved in August 2007. AFG releases its end-of-month's sales data promptly each month as a market indicator. Reading the data may be complicated. AFG may be a bellwether of the wider decline, or the lower volumes may be peculiar to the business model of aggregators. Mark Hewitt, general manager sales and operations at AFG, is more optimistic regarding the sluggish August sales, highlighting that many borrowers have delayed new mortgages due to interest rate uncertainty and increased living costs. "People are, before they make a major decision about purchasing a house, thinking it may be prudent to delay for a few months to see what pans out." Hewitt adds that many of the broker commission cuts have not yet impacted, with the majority of new structures taking effect in the next three to four months. "In terms of cash flow for our business (broker commissions), it has had no material impact yet. "If you look at the quantum of the cuts over the average loan life of four years, I think we are talking between a 25 to 28 per cent fall in income for mortgage brokers over a four year loan life." Hewitt said having lenders who have removed themselves from the broker panel has had minimal impact, due to the majority only being small lenders and providing only a few per cent of loans. "There have been about eight or nine leave, with the only material impact from Macquarie." Mortgage Choice last month said lender commission changes had so far had minimal impact.