Orr epic or APRA
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is the agenda-setter in Australian banking, the central bank preparing for a great industry crisis in Australia and fearful it will unfold soon.Australia is chronically overdue for a banking crisis (although APRA never says) and the industry is woefully under-provisioned and under-capitalised (the latter at least on APRA's lips).But it is APRA's Kiwi mate that is driving the Aussie banking agenda and the analysis around bank capital, sourcing, risk and governance that tire bank boards.And NZX and ASX listings of subsidiaries of multiple New Zealand banks run now by Aussie majors are looking more likely, through demergers or other M&A.That would drive utility models and more common sourcing.For insight on the RBNZ's recent reforms, Ian Rogers did this Q&A with Lynn Grieveson. Lynn is our sub-editor and contributor to Banking Day, living in Wellington.Ian: Lynn, where does the Reserve Bank of New Zealand slot into Kiwi society?Lynn: The Reserve Bank is seen as independent of Government and as the best-resourced set of economic forecasters. But until the GFC, it was seen as a fairly hands-off regulator. The shock of the GFC and having to provide emergency funding to the Big Four (Australian-owned) banks when global short term credit markets froze repeatedly in 2008 and 2009 jolted the RBNZ off the sidelines. It has progressively got more involved and prescriptive as a regulator, and that trend has accelerated under Adrian Orr, who became governor in September 2018. His outspoken style was well-known before his appointment.Ian: The activism. Is that down to Don Brash or what else explains it?Lynn: The Reserve Bank doesn't see itself now as an activist, but it was a pioneer 30 years ago when it introduced inflation targeting and the idea of legislated independence. The RBNZ sees itself as conservative and thinking about the long term risks, particularly given the absence (for now) of a deposit guarantee scheme in New Zealand, and the always-inherent risks of fractional reserve banking in a fiat currency world.Ian: How hard is the New Zealand Labour government running with the RBNZ agenda, and how much is it organic?Lynn: The Reserve Bank has led the drive to increase capital levels and the Government has stood back and professed it is letting the Reserve Bank do its job. This was initiated by Orr and has yet to be rebuffed by the Government, although there have been some uncomfortable moments. A stance of being tough on the Aussie banks is popular with voters - but the Government also wouldn't want business spooked any more than necessary, with business confidence remaining stubbornly (and in some ways, illogically) low following the election of the coalition Government.