Outlook grim for BOQ
Bank of Queensland's new chief George Frazis has survived a bruising interrogation from broking analysts about his plans to revive the financial performance of the company.Frazis yesterday reported a 40 per cent slide in first half profit to A$93 million, despite the bank generating above system growth in mortgage and business lending.BOQ is shooting out the lights in SME lending - a segment where it is now growing at more than double the industry average.However, a string of official rate cuts and blowouts in operating costs eroded lending margins to such an extent that the solid volume growth produced a slight fall in net interest income.Frazis characterised the first half as a period of transition for the company as it moved to reconfigure its retail and business banking operations."It's pleasing to see the momentum building in both the housing and commercial portfolios," the BOQ chief said."Both Virgin Money Australia and BOQ Specialist have continued to grow their housing portfolios, with BOQ Retail still contracting but driving an improvement on the previous periods through increased acquisition volumes," he said. Most analysts took little comfort from the composition of the result, saying they remain unconvinced about the company's prospects of weathering the difficult terrain ahead.Evans & Partners analyst Matthew Wilson - a longstanding critic of the bank's performance - told clients he was sceptical about the outlook in the short and long terms."BOQ have embarked on an ambitious bank wide digital transformation project that entails an investment of $440m over five years," he said in a research report."Our reservations on turnaround success are now compounded by a COVID-19 triggered credit cycle that will absorb capital and distract the organisation from the demanding plan."Wilson has a negative rating on the bank's scrip, but has set a 12 month price target of $6 on the stock. BOQ shares closed down 11 cents to $5.03 after the release of the half year result.Goldman Sachs analyst Andrew Lyons maintains a neutral view of the stock even though his 12 month price target is set at a more modest $5.50.Wilson also questioned whether the bank's estimate of needing up to $71 million in collective provisions to cover COVID-19 related bad debts in the second half would be sufficient."As we traverse this sudden economic stop, we expect much higher bad debts than that implied by a $49m-$71m collective provisioning overlay," he said.In a detailed presentation, Frazis also provided insights into the number of customers who had so far requested support packages from the bank.Almost 10,000 business borrowers have sought loan holidays, while around 5000 retail customers had applied for similar assistance.