Payment preference shifts resets bank profits
Payment card statistics for 2016 are looking awkward for major banks, in particular, as the revolve rate on credit card borrowings dives to a new all-time low. On the other hand, the use of scheme debit cards is bounding along.Analysis of monthly payments data from the Reserve Bank of Australia by a couple of industry consultants paints a dim picture for banks, which have for so long based earnings from their cards business on rising card balances on flowering transaction numbers.Mike Ebstein, of MWE Consulting, in a regular report, estimated the revolve rate at 60.4 per cent in December 2016, taking the underlying average annual rate down to 62.7 per cent. Revolving credit card balances peaked in April 2012 at more than A$37 billion and have declined 14 per cent since, Grant Halverson pointed out in separate analysis shared with Banking Day.Ebstein also threw light on changing seasonal patterns in card spending.The value of credit and charge card spend increased by $602 million from November 2016 to reach $28.5 billion in December 2016. This "established a new benchmark for monthly spend but was a somewhat disappointing 0.5 per cent above the December 2015 result," he said.The 2.2 per cent month-on-month lift in spend, Ebstein said, "was well below that experienced in recent years and provided further evidence of a fall in the traditional spike in card spend in December."Halverson said the overall lift in credit card transaction numbers of nine per cent across 2016, "reinforces the trend of consumers using credit cards to purchase items and not 'revolve'," and also "signals the growth of contactless payments which has a $100 limit."Ebstein pointed out that debit card accounts "experienced a surge in growth to the extent that they increased by almost ten times the number of new credit card accounts. "Both segments experienced further considerable growth in the average number of purchases per account, with the percentage increase over the last five years slightly higher for debit." Over five years, debit has progressively narrowed the gap with more spend now occurring on debit than on personal credit, Ebstein said.While consumers and controlling their borrowing habits, lenders continue to nudge aggregate credit limits higher."The last three years has seen ongoing small growth in total balances and limits, with balances moving from $51.0 billion in 2015 to $51.8 billion in 2016 and limits from $147 billion to $151 billion, Ebstein said. Ebstein highlighted another factor impeding any dynamic of profit growth in banks' cards divisions."The last eighteen months has seen only a small change to the average annual spend per account," he said. "Over the 12 months to June 2015, it was $18,673 with this having moved higher by just $136 per account over the ensuing eighteen months to the current figure of $18,809."Halverson, citing APRA data, said banks' credit card lending had "stalled … and this verifies other data showing the banks are neglecting unsecured consumer credit, with growth for six months of $470 Million or 1.3 per cent."