Payout ratio will fall
ANZ provided some woolly guidance on its intentions with respect to capital management, in part caused by a management tendency to agree to the premise of most questions on the matter.The key messages appear to be that the bank won't be cutting the dividend (of a $1.36 per share for the 2008 year and the same as in 2007) but that it won't necessarily be increasing it either.Mike Smith, the bank's CEO, said in answer to one analyst's question that any capital raising would have to be conjunction with an acquisition. He followed up by agreeing with a second analyst who asserted that the bank would need more capital as asset quality deteriorated.The second answer may be closer to the mark though ANZ, as with NAB earlier this week, managed to produce financial statements that show capital ratios are higher than might have been expected and also made clear that capital management initiatives in the short term would be at the margin (including, once again, underwriting the dividend payment and looking to sell more hybrid capital).Negligible growth in risk weighted assets, combined with conversion of preference shares to ordinary shares and the top up of hybrid capital late in the year enabled ANZ to report a tier one capital ratio of 7.7 per cent at September 2008, and a total capital ratio of 11.1 per cent.ANZ argued that under the rules that apply in Britain its tier one capital ratio would be 10.0 per cent ad that under Canada's rules it ratio would be 10.7 per cent.However, ANZ reported growth of less than two per cent in risk weighted assets over six months compared with an actual increase in receivables of five per cent over the same period.