Property shock on Moody's Australian watchlist
A poor outlook for residential property developments, which may correlate with Australia's bruised terms of trade, is one highlight of Moody's Investors Service's take on last week's round of bank results.In keeping with consensus analysis, Moody's said it "expected the asset quality of Australian banks to come under further pressure due to multiple headwinds."Its list of causes includes "potential further stress in resources-related sectors and regions, and continued stress in the New Zealand dairy sector" as well as "a worsening outlook for residential property developments."Moody's added that "although these pressures currently appear moderate, we expect the banks' credit metrics to deteriorate gradually over the rest of 2016."It explained that "in our view, lower commodity prices, despite a recent rebound, are likely to exert ongoing pressure on a number of resources-related borrowers [via] the nexus between these [resource] exposures and those in potentially correlated sectors."Moody's listed these as "residential apartment developments, commercial property in resource-focused regions, and consumer portfolios" while clarifying that this nexus was "not fully clear."Offsetting these factors Moody's pointed out that "the banks' residential mortgage portfolios continued to perform well" while "retail franchises remain highly profitable."