RBA foreshadows rate rise
A tightening in monetary policy seemed to be foreshadowed in a statement from the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, following the monthly board meeting yesterday.At present, the cash rate stands at 4.75 per cent and there's been plenty of conjecture in recent days over the significance of recent inflationary indicators for monetary policy - and the countervailing effect of trends such as rising exchange rates and softening prices.Yesterday's RBA statement had a hawkish tone in key phrases. For example, "The recent information suggests that the marked decline in underlying inflation from the peak in 2008 has now run its course. "While the rising exchange rate will be helping to hold down prices for some consumer products over the coming few quarters, over the longer term, inflation can be expected to increase somewhat if economic conditions evolve broadly as expected."Bank and other market economists monitored by Banking Day took a moderate view of the statement on balance, though some, such as NAB, inferred that the RBA had lifted the internal inflation forecast (which will be made public on Friday, in the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy).The implied prospect of a rate hike eased (marginally) on overnight index swap pricing.Sean Keane, of Triple T Consulting, and author of a daily money market commentary for Credit Suisse Securities, concluded that, "The RBA statement when it came was not stern enough for a market that had been 'McCranned' into a hawkish frame of mind in recent days" - a reference to the News Limited columnist perceived to have superior access to the machinations of RBA staff debates on policy options.