RBA taxed on rates
A further easing in monetary policy in Australia looks certain next week, with RBA governor Philip Lowe making clear last night that "an extended period of low interest rates will be required".The Reserve Bank board, he said, "is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, make further progress towards full employment, and achieve the inflation target over time".Surveying recent economic data Lowe reached the conclusion that we are likely to see "annual growth pick up from here. Apart from the international uncertainties, the main source of uncertainty around this outlook continues to be the strength of household spending. "It remains the case that a sustained pick-up in household spending will require faster growth in household incomes than we have seen over recent times."Over the year to June 2019, GDP grew by just 1.4 per cent, Lowe pointed out, "which is the slowest year-ended growth for some years. We did not expect this slowdown, so it has come as a bit of a surprise."Over the past year, there has been no growth at all in consumption per person, which is an unusual outcome at a time when employment is growing strongly," Lowe said."Another part of the explanation for weak growth in household spending is the adjustment in the housing market. As housing prices have fallen, there has been a marked decline in housing turnover, with the turnover rate having declined to the lowest level in more than 20 years. "With fewer of us moving homes, spending on new furniture and household appliances has been quite soft. So too has expenditure on moving costs and real estate fees. "More broadly, the correction in the housing market has also affected the economy through its impact on residential construction activity."Rents are increasing at the slowest rate in decades and there are declines being recorded in the price of building a new home in some cities."Households now receiving "larger tax refunds due to the low and middle income tax offset," is a cause for confidence."These payments will boost aggregate household income by 0.6 per cent this year. Past experience suggests that around half of these tax refunds will be spent over coming quarters. "Household disposable income is also being boosted by lower interest rates, although the effect is uneven across the community, with lower rates reducing the income of those households who rely on interest income. "Household spending should also be supported by an increase in housing turnover. Working in the other direction, though, is a further contraction in residential construction activity."