RBA tightens credit and profits
In a subtle but bearish shift in tone, Australia's central bank agrees that credit availability is getting more difficult."Credit conditions are tighter than they have been for some time," RBA governor Phillip Lowe wrote in yesterday's monthly update on monetary policy.In the release for the two prior meetings, Lowe used more neutral language."Housing credit growth has declined to an annual rate of 5½ per cent. This is largely due to reduced demand by investors as the dynamics of the housing market have changed," Lowe said following each of the August and September meetings.Also, once again warranting mention, was that "nationwide measures of rent inflation remain low," a drag on property prices and demand from investors for credit.Fitch Ratings projected an acceleration of a trend Lowe and the Reserve Bank of Australia board have hesitated to encourage.In a comment centred on the consequences for banks from the interim report of the financial services royal commission, Fitch endorsed the assessment of much recent commentary."The findings are also likely to make banks more cautious in their lending decisions, even though the government will take time to consider the implications for credit availability before making any regulatory changes," the ratings agency said. "Problems related to mortgage and consumer lending and the application of the responsible lending code suggest banks will eventually be required to further tighten their expense verification processes. Furthermore, increased scrutiny on intermediaries and brokers could hold back banks that most rely on them to generate loan growth. "Additional tightening of lending conditions would weigh on Australia's housing market, which is already cooling in response to the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority's stricter macro-prudential regulations on mortgage lending. It could also add to consumer spending growth headwinds." Fitch said it maintained a negative outlook on the banking sector, which it said reflected higher wholesale funding costs and rising loan-impairment charges as well as "additional profit pressure as a result of the Royal Commission's interim report."