It has been said that the Reserve Bank of Australia hints at its intentions before a rate rise, in order to "smooth expectations". Yesterday's events appear to discredit this view. After two weeks of rate rise speculation, the RBA left its cash rate unchanged, at 4.5 per cent.Before the rise, sentiment had swung rapidly towards the likelihood of a rate hike.The market was particularly influenced by a 20 September speech by RBA governor Glenn Stevens, in Shepparton, where he said that "if downside possibilities do not materialise, the task ahead is likely to be one of managing a fairly robust upswing."  The next day, observers seized on the RBA board's September minutes. These said, in part, that if Australia's economy continued to grow at trend rate or above over the next few years, "it was likely that higher interest rates would be required at some point".News Ltd columnist Terry McCrann, recently dubbed "the shadow governor", was adamant last Friday that a rise would come this week. "It would be surprising, shocking and even a tad disturbing if the Reserve Bank did not lift its official interest rate on Tuesday," he wrote last Saturday. "... The RBA all but 'announced' the rate rise late yesterday afternoon when it posted its index of commodity prices."McCrann's comments were picked up by wire services and clearly influenced the markets. TD Securities' Annette Beacher, for one, pointed to "hawkish noise from well-known RBA-watching journalists" as a market driver.Yesterday's announcement suggests the RBA did not intend to use the minutes or the Shepparton speech to signal an immediate tightening. Rather, the statements made by the Reserve, mostly about the medium-term future, were wrongly taken as a pointer to short-term rate decisions. The market has been over-interpreting RBA statements. (It is also conceivable that the board unexpectedly rolled the RBA executive in the meeting; that the RBA set out to mislead the market and demonstrate the board's role in decision-making, or that the RBA is trying to slow the economy by "open-mouth operations" without actually raising rates. But these alternatives all seem unlikely.)The RBA under Stevens has progressively spoken more and more about why it does what it does. But with that increased openness there is  potential for over-reaction. The RBA is probably hoping that the past fortnight of forecasting flubs makes commentators more cautious.