RBNZ surprises some by holding
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the official cash rate at 2.25 per cent as most expected, but it surprised some in the financial markets who thought Australia's March quarter deflation shock would increase the pressure for a cut.The New Zealand dollar rose strongly against the Australian and US dollars after the decision not to cut, given financial markets had priced in a 50 per cent chance of a cut. The results did not surprise economists, given 14 out of 17 had forecast the rate would be held, although the bank's less dovish commentary raised doubts about how many more cuts were likely in 2016.Economists said the growing pressure of a housing market revival was likely to force the central bank, which is also the banking regulator, to have to look at further toughening lending controls as interest rates fell later in the year.The RBNZ cut the OCR by 25 basis points in March, surprising most and causing economists to forecast two more cuts in 2016 to 1.75 per cent, given headline inflation has been below the two per cent midpoint of the central bank's one per cent to three per cent per cent target band for four and a half years.However, RBNZ governor Graeme Wheeler was cautious with his comments in a brief statement after the decision, saying only that further policy easing was required. Most expect the bank will cut again with its Monetary Policy Statement on June 9."Today's statement suggests that the RBNZ is planning to call time on the easing cycle in the June MPS," Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said.Wheeler did not give a specific reason for not cutting, but did point to a heating up of housing inflation."House prices remain at very high levels and additional housing supply is needed. Housing market pressures are building in some other regions," Wheeler said.Wheeler referred to uncertainties globally and locally, including "weakness in the dairy sector, the decline in inflation expectations, the possibility of continued high net immigration, and pressures in the housing market."He said the outlook for global growth had deteriorated over recent months due to weaker growth in China and other emerging markets, although prices for some commodities had picked up, but remained weak.Wheeler again commented that he would like to see the currency lower, but instead the New Zealand dollar rose almost one US cent to 69.1 US cent and two Australian cents to 91 Australian cents.ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said a clear easing bias had been maintained, but that the statement was slightly less dovish than on March 10."The door to a June OCR cut remains open, and that remains our forecast for now. But we see this as very much a line-ball call (we see the odds of a cut at about 60 per cent)," he said.ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said he still expected the Reserve Bank to cut in June, in line with the central bank's own forecasts. He also noted the bank was increasingly likely to have