RBNZ turns dovish
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the official cash rate unchanged at 3.0 per cent, but delivered an emphatic outlook on interest rates.Unusually, the outlook on rates took precedence over the discussion of the economy in the statement published yesterday. "Interest rates are now projected to rise to a more limited extent over the next two years than signalled in the September Statement," read the second line of the RBNZ's statement.The central bank then went on to talk about the economy, where it said the pace of economic growth appeared to have moderated.The emphasis on signalling a dovish outlook is to ensure that low rates can have a stimulatory effect on the economy, after recent growth data disappointed.The RBNZ has been surprised recently by the extent of caution displayed by households, and the failure of low rates to stimulate spending and growth. To makes matters worse, it doesn't know if this household behaviour is temporary or could be a "new normal". The only way to test this is to commit for low rates for longer, to gauge if these will have a stimulatory effect at some point.Lifting government spending to boost growth is not seen as a viable option at present. In fact, the RBNZ is counting on the planned cut in the budget deficit to lift national savings and thus ease pressure on interest rates and the dollar. This will have a two-fold effect of reducing dependence on international borrowing and boosting exports further.