Recent rate hike may not affect delinquencies
Delinquency trends on prime home loans in Australia were generally stable in the September 2010 quarter and are expected to remain so even after the recent rate hike, but future increases may become a burden to borrowers.Low-doc delinquencies, on the other hand, saw significant jumps in the past quarter and will remain under pressure after the recent hike.A report from Moody's, published yesterday, showed 30-plus day delinquencies for prime mortgages rose to 1.43 per cent at the end of September, from 1.40 per cent in June. A similar analysis by Fitch Ratings' analysis showed such delinquencies fell to 1.30 per cent, from 1.32 per cent. However, arrears would have increased to 1.37 per cent from 1.33 per cent if called, and newly inserted transactions were excluded.Significantly, Fitch found that 90-plus day delinquencies of 0.48 per cent (down from 0.50 per cent) were the lowest since March 2008.The trend was different for low-doc portfolios, where 30-plus day arrears rose to 3.73 per cent, from 2.93 per cent, as per Moody's report, and to 5.79 per cent from 5.32 per cent, as per Fitch's report.However, few low-doc loans are included in recent pools of home loans refinanced through securitisation, and it is these loan pools that are the basis of this data on home loan arrears.Both the ratings agencies generally expect delinquency trends to be remain stable even after the November hike in the cash rate and large lifts in home loans rates but remain unsure if any further increases can be withstood.