S&P warn of weakening financial sector across A-Pac region
The overall outlook bias for Asia-Pacific issuers rated by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services remained net negative in March 2016. The overall outlook bias on Asia-Pacific issuers was a net negative level of nine per cent at March 2016. The financial services sector is no exception: on S&P's analysis, the net ratings outlook is minus ten per cent (that is, more downgrades and negative outlooks that upgrades) for the financial institutions. "While the sector's net negative bias improved overall compared with the situation [as at] 31 October last year, this was partly due to extraneous factors to the region, including the placement of Asia-Pacific subsidiaries of US banks on CreditWatch positive following rating actions on their parent institutions," noted Fitch. Concerns regarding China, as well as significant equity and credit market volatility in first-quarter ended 2016 have reinforced this negative view for financial institutions sectors in China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Sri Lanka, and Papua New Guinea. The remainder of FI sectors in the region can expect a stable economic trend except for Singapore, which has a positive economic trend. For China's financial institutions sector, increasing credit risks in the economy continue to mount negative pressure, as the ratings agency observed: "We are monitoring the ultimate effect on financial institutions' credit quality of key developments in the real economy (rather than volatility in share prices). "These developments include the liberalisation of interest rates, cuts to official interest rates by the People's Bank of China, and a lower ratio of deposits that Chinese banks must hold. Factors affecting the sovereign outlook will also be important to financial institutions' credit quality in 2016." More specifically for the Australian and NZ region, property remains a key risk factor in some Asia-Pacific banking markets - especially Hong Kong, Australia, and New Zealand. "We are cautious toward the effects on Asia Pacific banking from potentially tighter monetary policy in the US. A further risk factor is volatility affecting foreign currency and commodity markets, although our current outlook for the region's banking sectors are that these higher market risks can be absorbed at current rating levels," said S&P.