Saving ratio tumbles further
An extended fall in the household saving ratio is evident in the latest national accounts for Australia, to some degree vindicating recent analysis of this measure by the Reserve Bank of Australia.The saving ratio fell to 7.6 per cent in the December 2015 quarter from 8.7 per cent in the September 2015 quarter (on a seasonally adjusted basis), and well down from the post GFC high of 11.9 per cent at the end of 2008.Last month, the RBA forecast in its Bulletin that the saving ratio in Australia might exhibit "a further modest decline" over the next few years.The RBA noted then that: "the saving ratio has declined modestly over the past three years or so." It said the rise in the saving ratio over this period "was also most pronounced in the [resource rich] states of Queensland and Western Australia.""As commodity prices have fallen and the mining investment boom has transitioned to the production phase (which requires relatively less labour), household saving ratios in Western Australia and Queensland have declined, allowing households to maintain higher consumption than otherwise."