Scotland the Brave sees its money take flight
The Scottish independence vote takes place on September 18, one week from today. And suddenly pundits and financial markets are starting to worry.Over last weekend a YouGov poll showed, for the first time, that a Yes vote is likely to get up.Suddenly, the implications for five million people and an economy that accounts for just one tenth of the UK's GDP, are being seriously considered. The initial reaction in financial markets has been negative.On Monday, after the poll results came out, the UK pound fell by 1.3 per cent against the US dollar, and the stocks of UK banks with large Scottish operations were sold-off. CDS spreads for Royal Bank of Scotland widened by eight per cent to 81 basis points, Lloyds Bank by 7.3 per cent to 60 bps and subsidiary, Bank of Scotland by 3.7 per cent to 45 bps.Even Barclay's Bank CDS widened by 3.3 per cent to 56 bps. The banks' CDS spreads have remained at these levels.There may even be a sense of panic, with the Financial Times reporting that cash was leaving Scotland to be deposited with banks in London. If they are the same banks that have seen their CDS spreads widen and shares sold-off, this action would seem to be futile.This would be especially so in the case of Royal Bank of Scotland, with the UK government holding 83 per cent of its capital. Will the UK government feel a continuing need to be such a significant shareholder after a Scottish separation from the Union?However, a flight to the strength of the pound would be a rational response. While Scottish separatists have said they want to retain the pound, this is unlikely to occur.Scotland will either have to introduce its own currency or join the euro. Either way currency depreciation is likely to be the result.Furthermore, what will happen to UK government guarantees of deposits in Scottish banks? One would expect that these will be removed and it will be up to any new Scottish government to extend its own guarantee, if it sees fit to do so.Finally, what about NAB with its Scottish exposure? It is hard to tell whether there has been any impact on its share price but its five year CDS is currently the lowest of the major banks at 45.3 bps.