Scramble for bank capital
National Australia Bank yesterday outlined aspects of its planned approach to raising capital in the near future, which hasn't stopped the market guessing that its capital needs are both more pressing and more substantial than described in the announcement.NAB said it planned to underwrite the shortfall on investor participation in its dividend reinvestment plan for the payments due in November and May, and, more vaguely, that "it will explore opportunities to utilise tier one hybrid capacity".The bank said it will publish its profit next Tuesday, a week and a half earlier than planned, and thus ahead of ANZ (which reports on Thursday) and Westpac (which reports the following Wednesday).Market conjecture suggests that NAB plans an immediate capital raising and that the bank is aiming to do so before, say, ANZ. The Financial Review reported today that as recently as the weekend NAB was planning a $1.5 billion capital raising this week. The Herald Sun reported NAB is expected to announce a capital raising of about $2 billion.Underwriting the DRP will enable the bank to retain $3 billion, though the market will have assumed this was part of NAB's planning in any event (as it most likely will turn out to be at ANZ).The surprising detail in NAB's announcement is the statement that its profit will fall only 11 per cent to $3.9 billion (and "around consensus", according to the bank) while the tier one capital ratio will be "clearly above seven per cent". Security values for loans are cratering in Britain, worsening in New Zealand and look shaky in Australia, and between the increased loan losses created by recessions in two if not all three of the bank's core markets and the increased risk grading (and increased risk weighting for capital adequacy purposes) tier one capital ratios look very hard to maintain; an issue that's tougher for NAB to manage, thanks to its business in Britain, than it is for other banks.Meanwhile the Financial Review's Street Talk column reports that NAB is "understood to be firming as the buyer of Wizard Home Loans from GE Money", though the report qualifies this by noting that "ANZ may also have some interest".