Serious support for small fry will cost banks
The banking reform package is already defining the winners and losers among Australia's listed banks stocks. Among the losers are major banks. Among the winners are regional banks, especially Bank of Queensland - or so argues Macquarie Equities, in a research note circulated yesterday.Looking at the forthcoming banking reform package presently being prepared by the Government, Macquarie analysts Michael Wiblin, Craig Turton and Cameron Pierce have taken a stab at estimating the impact of the policy reforms on bank earnings.Covered bonds, they think, are worth between four and six basis points in margins to the industry, or an earnings uplift of between one and three per cent.Aggressive government support for the secondary mortgage market may clip between six and 13 per cent off big bank profits, though the impact may take two to three years to flow through, the analysts say.The less likely option of a government-owned "Koala Bank" might strip between five and 10 per cent from industry earnings, the Macquarie trio suggest, though they point out that it would be small deposit-takers who would be under pressure rather than the majors.Green Party proposals for a fixed-margin home loan tied to a transparent cost of funds index would have an "ambiguous impact" on industry profits, the analysts conclude.Turning to the implications of the banking policy package on valuations for bank stocks, Wiblin, Turton and Pierce pick Bank of Queensland as one likely to benefit.They point out that BOQ has what they call "strong asset generating capacity".BOQ led the banking sector in deposit and loans in the last year, with growth in each sector of 16 per cent and 13 per cent, respectively, in the year to August 2010.Bendigo Bank was not too far behind, with growth in lending of 12 per cent.With a price of A$10.94, shares in BOQ are trading not far above projected book value in 2012 on Macquarie Equities' estimates.