Stats show business heading up in July
The Australian Bureau of Statistics has published its latest monthly coverage of secured housing finance for owner occupation, other personal finance, commercial finance and lease finance - looking at the change from June to July.The ABS numbers show that the value of personal finance commitments has dropped hard, in contrast with other series, such as 'owner occupied housing commitments, excluding alterations and additions', where the total value was flat in trend terms, while the seasonally adjusted series rose 1.3 per cent. Mike Ebstein, director at cards and payment advisory business, MWE Consulting has more faith in longer term trend lines. He said year-on-year, residential property loans to investors lifted by less than 1.5 per cent, but loans to owner occupiers were up 7 per cent year on year, from June 2017 to June 2018.The trend series for the value of total personal finance commitments fell 1.6 per cent. Revolving credit commitments fell 5.7 per cent, while fixed lending commitments rose 0.7 per cent.Ebstein said these trends reflected a longer-term aversion to non-housing debt, which was up by just 4.5 per cent in five years, on his analysis.The trend series for the value of total commercial finance commitments rose 0.8 per cent. Revolving credit commitments rose 2.4 per cent and fixed lending commitments rose 0.3 per cent. Seasonally adjusted, the value of total commercial finance commitments rose 0.2 per cent. Fixed lending commitments rose 0.2 per cent and revolving credit commitments rose 0.1 per cent. Similarly, total lease finance commitments rose 3.8 per cent in July 2018, twice the rate of the seasonally adjusted series (up by 1.9 per cent), following a rise of 2.4 per cent in June 2018.Those business-related categories of finance items broadly reflect NAB's monthly business sentiment numbers for August 2018, published yesterday. This survey-based analysis shows that local businesses are - on average - feeling more confident now than they were last month.Leading indicators improved a little in the month after weakening in recent months. Forward orders rose to above average levels, reversing its decline last month. Capacity utilisation edged slightly higher and remains relatively high after drifting up in recent years."The stabilisation of the forward looking indicators provides some comfort that while business conditions have eased from the levels seen in early 2018, the outlook remains positive," said Alan Oster, NAB group chief economist. "In combination with a rebound in business conditions this month, this suggests that the business sector has continued to perform strongly as we enter the second half of 2018."