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Suncorp earns an upgrade

04 June 2012 4:57PM
Suncorp's new simplification program has won favour with analysts at Deutsche Bank and Macquarie Equities, who upgraded the stock after the latter's strategy briefing last week.Deutsche Bank upgraded Suncorp to a Buy, saying the group's program had the potential to add 10 per cent to profits by the 2016 financial year. Macquarie upgraded the stock to Neutral. Macquarie did not revise its earnings' forecast as it said Suncorp had been oversold.Suncorp said its aim was to produce benefits of $200 million a year by getting rid of legacy insurance systems, improving productivity and investing in Suncorp Bank's core banking platform. The banking division is also working on an enhanced risk management program to move the bank to advanced Basel accreditation. Suncorp said it was focusing its employees on "high value activities" that deliver a strategic advantage.Suncorp made it clear the bank would continue to pursue growth in assets and deposits at above system, and aspires to lift its market share by one percentage point, a feat that might lift the bank's profits by around 30 per cent.At present, Suncorp has a market share of deposits of 2.8 per cent and a market share of home loans of 2.9 per cent.Ten years ago, Suncorp's deposit market share was 3.7 per cent and its home loan market share was 3.3 per cent.The bank - part of the wider Suncorp insurance group - allowed its market share to drift during the later stages of the long credit boom and then lost more market share as its business model was tested during the financial crisis.Deutsche Bank said Suncorp's core business (excluding its run-off loan book) was trading at 7.6 times forecasted 2012/13 earnings which represented a "compelling upside". It set a 12-month price target of $9.50 on the stock, compared with Friday's close of $7.71. Macquarie's 12-month target price is $8.62.Deutsche said Suncorp's core bank would benefit from platform simplification. The bank runs on 15 legacy systems at the moment. Deutsche's estimate is that successful execution of the simplification program will reduce the bank's cost-to-income ratio by about eight percentage points, helping it achieve a cost-to-income ratio in the mid-40s.

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