The banking sector wrap - week ending April 2
It's been somewhat of a wild ride to get here, including a 2.8 per cent jump in the ASX 200 in Thursday's session, but the week ending Thursday has seen only a 0.9 per cent rise in the ASX 200. The average movement of the big four banks was up 0.7 per cent - strictly an underperformance, but realistically no bank moved much more than two per cent in either direction over the week.The theme of the last two FNArena weekly bank wraps has been to note that the share prices of the big four have now exceeded their average target prices, as far as the FNArena universe of leading brokers is concerned. In FNArena's experience, this always signals bank share prices have run too far in the short term. As we close out the week, all four banks are now around five of six per cent in excess of their targets.This implies a couple of shifts in thinking. Either brokers must raise their targets to a new level beyond current trading prices, or bank share prices must fall back below targets. Last week we found Citi ticking up its target prices slightly, while at the same time downgrading ANZ from buy to hold. That meant all of the big four were now rated hold by Citi.This week we have seen Credit Suisse conduct a mark-to-market for equity prices, bond prices and bank bill rates, and adjust its bank earnings' forecasts accordingly. The result is indeed an increase in Credit Suisse's target prices, albeit not enough to drag any share price back below the averages. CS has raised ANZ from $14 to $15, Westpac from $18 to $19, National from $20 to $22, and the biggie is Commonwealth, from $31 to $39.Does this mean that all brokers will soon upgrade their target prices so that bank prices do not simply fall as they always do? Not likely. Because this week has seen more ratings downgrades. RBS Australia (formerly ABN Amro) has moved Westpac from buy to hold, ANZ from hold to sell and CBA from hold to sell.These movements have had a rather important impact on the spread of buy, hold and sell ratings among the big four. Prior to the turnaround in the stock market early last month, there were more net buy ratings than net sell ratings for the big four in the FNArena universe. Last week the specific ratio of buys to sells had reached a tenuous 10/8. This week the ratio has tipped over to 9/10, meaning that we now have more net sell ratings than net buy ratings. The brokers have, in essence, agreed with FNArena's observed rule. They are beginning to believe (collectively) that bank share prices have run far enough for now.For RBS, the downgrade decisions were all about 2010 financial year earnings, not FY09. For FY09 it is a situation where Australian asset growth has now fallen to recession levels across the banking system. The big four have gained market share, and