The G20 summit gives cause for cautious optimism
Global financial markets rallied at the end of last week on the successful completion of the G20 summit. The outcome was better than had been hoped for, with significant new initiatives announced in the form of enhanced responsibilities for the Financial Stability Forum and the US$1.1 trillion funding program for the IMF.Of course, there was also the expected announcement of sweeping fiscal stimulus, even if a lot of it has already been announced by individual participants. But at least in a sign that change may be implemented quickly, the Financial Stability Forum promptly announced that it had re-established itself as the Financial Stability Board to deal with its broadened mandate to bolster oversight of the global financial system.For the equity markets, the rally last week was a continuation of a very strong rally that has been under way since the markets hit their nadir (to date) in early March. The initial catalyst was the almost simultaneous announcements by the UK and US governments that monetary policy was shifting to quantitative easing and the printing presses would start rolling. This was followed the next week in the United States, with the launch of the Public-Private Investment Program.Until the G20 summit the credit markets, as defined by the CDS market in this case, did not follow the rally in equity markets - a disconnect opened up between the two. This is far from unusual, as the interests of shareholders and credit providers often do not align, given the skewed distribution of returns to debtholders. In this case it seems that while equity markets took heart from the sheer volume of money being thrown at the GFC, no doubt looking at the short-term gains that may arise from any thaw in financial markets, credit markets were waiting for a longer term regulatory solution. The G20 appears to have provided that and CDS indices rallied as a result.For now it seems that both equity and credit markets are happy to ignore the latest dire economic forecasts released by the World Bank and the OECD during the week. The latter has its members in recession through 2010, while the global forecast allows for some growth in GDP next year but not this year. Also being ignored is the now likely bankruptcy of General Motors and Chrysler. Bondholders of the former will be lucky to recover 20 cents in the dollar, it seems. So, at the beginning of the second quarter of 2009 are we better off than we were at the end of 2008? The answer has to be no, based on the numbers from the financial markets: some indicators have improved but others have not. Nevertheless, we have more cause for optimism.The Dow Jones Index finished 2008 at 8776 points; it finished last week at 8018 points, down some 8.6 per cent. The S&P/ASX 200, on the other hand, has now exceeded its end of December level of 3722 points, finishing the week at 3736.According to Markit, the main CDS indices finished the week