Three years of aid confirmed for Greece
The European Union and International Monetary Fund over the weekend worked out most of the terms for the multi-billion euro financial bail-out of Greece. While final terms are yet to be made public the talk over the weekend was that the rescue package will amount to €100 billion to €120 billion, over three years.The German finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, said there is no alternative to aiding Greece. He also went on to say that they are not defending Greece but they are defending the stability of their currency, the euro. However, to put the actions of the EU and ECB into perspective, there is also the recognition that failure to save Greece could ultimately cost the EU €500 billion, if other EU members fail in Greece's wake. This is a truly scary proposition and it is what is keeping officials involved in the negotiations from acknowledging the possibility of a debt restructuring taking place.On the other hand though, some market participants are openly stating that it is inevitable. The size of the rescue to be mounted is too big and investors will have to bear some of the pain.The difficulty with this is who the investors are: German financial institutions hold some €28 billion of Greek bonds, according to estimates by Barclays Capital. Hypo Real Estate Group holds €7.9 billion of Greek debt on its own.Barclays says France holds €50 billion of Greek bonds, with the Bank of France holding €7 billion, and Italy holds €20 billion. Then follow the holdings of Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg. The ECB also holds Greek bonds, which it has accepted as collateral for loans to Greek banks. The European banks and other government-backed institutions are the largest holders of Greek bonds - about €300 billion in all. Any losses incurred on these holdings will be felt by EU taxpayers and the flow-on effects to the remaining "PIGS" - Portugal, Ireland and Spain - could easily trigger a second round of the GFC. Government guarantees for troubled banks may not cut it, a second time around.