Up to banks to dispense with wholesale guarantee
Our commentary last week on possible changes to the federal government's guarantee scheme for wholesale debt issuance by the banks and other ADIs may have been pre-emptive but seemingly quite close to the mark. However, we may not be any closer to an actual decision being made.The Senate committee examining the issue handed down its report on Thursday, which included two key recommendations:1. The need to apply differential (risk) premia for ADIs with different ratings should be reviewed given that the market does not price all guaranteed debt identically.2. An appropriately designed guarantee for residential mortgage-backed securities should be introduced.Unfortunately, the committee went on to discuss the complete withdrawal of the wholesale guarantee once the GFC eases, and in doing so gave the government the excuse it needs to do nothing for some time yet. The committee said removal of the guarantee may need a degree of international coordination to avoid disadvantaging Australian ADIs in global markets.The issue of continuing government guarantees for bank wholesale funding is expected to be discussed at the G20 leaders meeting in Pittsburgh next week but it is unlikely that any timetable for removal will be agreed. This is despite the Americans moving ahead of everyone else to end their program, as mentioned here last week.In the meantime, all indicators have been pointing to the government (and Treasury) not being overly enthusiastic about making any changes to the existing scheme. While the inequity of the fee structure has been tacitly acknowledged, the clear preference would seem to be that banks simply stop using the guarantee scheme. And with conditions in debt markets continuing to steadily improve, the government probably only needs to bide its time before this becomes reality. The unilateral move by the US government in this respect will probably also assist the process, at least as far as the four majors are concerned. They have been substantial users of the US s144A market this year, and if the US banks will soon be issuing without any ongoing guarantee support, they should be able to as well. Both groups have issued in that market in reasonable volumes in recent months without a guarantee, so there should be no significant transitional hurdles to overcome.In the domestic market, non-guaranteed issuance by the big four has almost become the norm again. It is now time for one of the regional banks, say Suncorp-Metway, to try it.