Westpac and perhaps NAB stalk Rams
With a market capitalisation of $499 million that is now around half the value at which it was sold to institutions and select investors in a public float only three weeks ago, Rams has quickly evolved from overvalued to undervalued - and has to be a takeover target.There was no trade sale of Rams in any of the several rounds of efforts by its former owners (including executive chair John Kinghorn, who still owns a 20 per cent stake) to sell the business over the last two or three years because Kinghorn always insisted on selling only for his view of fair value.With valuation now in the hands of a different set of owners - most of whom may now wish they were not - prospective trade buyers of Rams may be in a favourable position to make an offer for the company, and perhaps soon.Suncorp and Colonial have filed substantial shareholder notices (as fund managers) of Rams.The talk is that trade buyers are already making fresh inquiries about what to make of Rams' current funding difficulties.The private equity also-rans in the Rams sale, such as Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Nikko Principal Investment Australia and really any other PE entity have to be unlikely bidders in the current climate.Rather, Rams is now a prime target for a bank. There are two obvious candidates, National Australia Bank and Westpac.It's the received wisdom that NAB tried to buy Rams last year, and for about 50 per cent more than Rams' current market capitalisation.Westpac, which kicked tyres on Rams earlier this year, might be in the running as well. One reason for thinking so is that Westpac seems to be making changes to its approach to capital management.Comments made by Westpac management during last week's briefing on the bank's proposed BT Investment Management spin off suggest material capital releases are now less likely - or perhaps Westpac is hoarding capital for an acquisition. In response to questions Westpac chief executive David Morgan said the capital released from the partial sale of BT would be used to "enhance our growth strategy more generally across the bank."