World credit markets past their nadir
At the end of the first quarter this newsletter noted the positive sentiment that had returned to financial markets and lifted performance from the nadir seen in early March. These comments came after the completion of the G20 summit and the various major initiatives that had been announced in the lead up to the summit by the US and UK governments. The big question, of course, was whether the positive sentiment could be maintained.Two weeks on, so far, so good: first quarter company reporting for 2009 got under way in the US last week and markets responded positively, even though a number of questions could be asked about some of the results reported. Goldman Sachs got the week under way, reporting a better than expected earnings per share of US$3.39, against analysts' expectations of US$1.49.After the results were digested analysts starting asking questions about a 'convenient' change in reporting dates. GS moved its end of financial year to December 31 from November 30. This meant that for the first time it reported Q1 results to the end of March, rather than February, and with its last report being for the year to the end of November 2008, GS reported the results for the month of December in isolation. GS incurred a loss of US$2.15 per share for the month. Although the result for March in isolation is not known, it seems unlikely that GS would have reported a Q1 profit, if its balance date had not changed. Nevertheless, it was enough to drive in credit default swaps spreads on Macquarie Bank, which Markit Group reported as being the biggest improver in the Asia-Pacific region, by 49 basis points on the day, taking its four-week contraction to 320 bps.On Thursday night our time, JPMorgan Chase reported an apparently more convincing Q1 result (no change in balance date), with EPS again beating expectations at US$0.40 rather than US$0.30. In both cases the markets took further comfort in announced plans to repay TARP funding.GS was able to quickly raise US$5 billion after its results were announced, to use towards repaying its US$10 billion of TARP funding, as soon as the US government gives the okay i.e. after its stress test results are announced in May. JP Morgan said, with its results announcement, that it could repay its US$25 billion of Tarp funding today, if it was allowed.JP Morgan then went on to sell US$3.0 billion of ten-year bonds at 350 bps over US Treasuries, without a US government guarantee. The issue was two times over subscribed and more non-GG bank issuance is now expected in the US.What wasn't discussed much about these first quarter results, was to what extent amended accounting rules governing the valuation on illiquid securities allowed profits to be reported. In this context, it is clear that it was the fixed income, currency and commodity trading activities of the banks that drove their results; it wasn't the contributions from other divisions. It's also worth observing that it was UBS that