It’s an ugly banking story getting uglier by the day, and NAB is making most of its own trouble.
With understating provisions needed now, NAB knows it is one bank with the option of leading the industry and setting up a reconciliation with, and recovery from, the calamity ahead.
Ten million new businesses must be ushered into view to replace the 2 million blown off course so far by the coronavirus but NAB is barely in view as a contender to serve this market.
Maybe NAB will weave its way around Westpac or fall in with the ANZ brigade over the road.
NAB provisioning looks like costing the bank’s shareholders a lot of profit. At A$570 million in the June 2020 quarter, the credit impairment charge is three times the level of the final quarter of calendar 2019.
The march of the 90 days past due and impaired ratio – NAB’s number one measure – is getting worse by the moment.
At this point two years ago this ratio was 0.71 per cent and NAB hung around there for a bit. The nine basis point burst to 1.06 per cent reported by the bank for the FY2020 third quarter is the liveliest quarterly change in a while. All and sundry must see that torrid times lie ahead.
Cash earnings before tax and credit impairment charges lifted by 5 per cent at NAB in the third quarter and the bank put the statutory and cash profits near enough the same for once, at around $1.7 billion.
NAB’s CET1 capital ratio six weeks ago was 11.8 per cent. Like most other banks, NAB will be working towards whopping capital raisings, diluting the current shareholder pool.
Just about as disappointing as every near rival and the owner of a recent history of corrupt sales practices and weak governance, NAB need not be doomed.
May they overwhelm CBA and own the Australian banking industry. Somebody needs to.