The public controversy over the federal government’s bleak outlook for real wage growth over the next three years could stoke combative industrial responses across the labour movement, including unions active in the finance sector.
Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg on Tuesday unveiled a set of grim forecasts for wage movements in the 2022 budget papers despite resilient labour demand that is expected to drive the unemployment rate under 5 per cent.
The government expects wages across the economy to decline in real terms in the current financial year and throughout 2022.
A return to real wage growth is not envisaged before 2024.
Nominal wage rises of between 1.25 per cent and 1.5 per cent are a hard sell for union officials, with many of them coming under pressure from their members to deliver meaningful improvements to take-home pay.
It appears that the finance sector will provide the first battleground for testing the government’s forecasts, with negotiations about to open for a new enterprise agreement for around 1000 Reserve Bank staff.
Banking Day can reveal that the Finance Sector Union will be pushing the RBA to dish up wage and salary increases of more than 3 per cent.
In recent years an annual cap of 2 per cent has applied to most federal public service agreements.
FSU national secretary Julia Angrisano says public comments by the Reserve Governor Philip Lowe calling for wage rises of at least 3 per cent should be reflected in the new central bank’s new enterprise deal.
“Wage growth is currently at 1.4 per cent, continuing to set new record lows, while profits have grown at 8.9 per cent through 2020 so we look forward to the Governor matching his desire to see wage increases with a three in front of them,” she told Banking Day.
Angrisano noted that the RBA agreement was not subject to the wages cap and other policy directives imposed on most other enterprise agreements in the federal sector.
“The RBA Governor has recognised that slow wage outcomes are affecting the economy,” she said.
“The RBA isn’t bound by the outdated Australian Public Service salary policy and always hides behind it as the reason for lower salary outcomes.
“The FSU expects the RBA rhetoric to match their pay offer.”
Apart from the pay issue, the enterprise talks are expected also to focus on the rapid expansion of insecure employment at the Reserve Bank.
In the 12 months to the end of June last year the RBA hired 200 new employees, of whom 59 per cent were recruited into short term, temporary positions.
The multi-year RBA enterprise agreement expired at the end of March last year but the parties agreed to defer negotiations for a new deal due to the pandemic.