Mortgage stress levels are rising, after falling to a record low in 2021, but are unlikely to rise to anywhere near the peak levels of the financial crisis, according to a Roy Morgan report.

In a survey conducted over the three months to July, Roy Morgan found that 19.4 per cent of mortgage borrowers were “at risk” or “extremely at risk” of mortgage stress.

This level is up from the 17.3 per cent Roy Morgan reported for the three months to May last year and is the same as the proportion of borrowers at risk or extremely at risk in the three months to May 2020.

Mortgage stress measured by Roy Morgan was at a record low in 2021, thanks to low interest rates, government stimulus and lender forbearance.

And while stress levels have risen this year, they are well below the peak of 35.6 per cent during the financial crisis and below the average of 20.8 per cent over the past decade.

Roy Morgan measures mortgage stress in two ways: borrowers are at risk if their mortgage payments are greater than a certain percentage of after-tax household income (25 to 40 per cent, depending on income and spending); and they are considered extremely at risk if the interest component of their payments is over those percentages.

Its findings are based on interviews with more than 60,000 Australians each year, including more than 10,000 owner occupier home loan borrowers.

It has modelled the impact of the August and September rate rises and assumed rate increases in October and November to forecast that by November the proportion of borrowers at risk or extremely at risk will be 24.3 per cent.

Roy Morgan chief executive Michele Levine said: “Our figures suggest that as long as employment levels remain strong, the number of mortgage holders considered at risk will not increase to anywhere near the levels experienced during the financial crisis.”