Payments flows too resilient for RBA

Ian Rogers

Data on real-time gross settlements for November suggests tighter monetary policy in Australia since May might be straining to leave its mark.
 
The RBA’s RTGS data – the most timely economic indicator – shows the average daily value of combined payments in the economy dipped four per cent to A$139 billion. (Banking Day has elected to exclude all Austraclear payments reported by the RBA in the RTGS total.)
 
The monthly Real-time Gross Settlement Statistics indicator rolls up essentially all B2B, B2C and P2P payments processed across interbank systems in Australia.
 
Payments volumes have shrunk by 11 per cent since February.
 
It’s questionable whether this turnaround is sufficient to give the RBA an excuse to pause the rate hike cycle imposed seven months ago, with another hike in the cash rate widely anticipated to follow today’s meeting of the RBA board.