Comment: More returns than results from CBA

Ian Rogers
If the door were open to steamroll some part of the finance market in the wake of Australia's experience with the GFC, Commonwealth Bank seems not to have found its way through.  At least, nothing to match its 11th hour acquisition of the UK's Bankwest at the height of the crisis.

Customer satisfaction with modern banking services is high for CBA, in excess of 92 per cent on the bank's favourite measures.

CBA leads on many product metrics and strides ahead of peers on ROE (18.6 per cent this time) - which has powered the dividend production machine that is CBA. It's proving effective and seems likely to hold a lead position on Australian banking industry returns, with a stated policy to pay out 70 to 80 per cent of after tax profits.

It may be a brilliant place to be for an entity reaching for a longer lead and angling for superior returns, but 20 per cent plus for bank ROEs must surely be on the minds of some.

And while tinkering and chicanery may deliver this in the short term, it's a risk that CBA surely must see as not worth taking.  Sustainably higher returns require cost control and productivity shifts - a necessity in banking and more widely - but one that is hard to organise.

Yet CBA is not close to claiming any corner of the market for itself, amid the stability and high returns - the bank seems content with allowing an oligopoly market sharing standoff to prevail.

It's a story that, along with the industry, surely must be shaken up if CBA's returns will show a decent chance of improving. On present numbers, an ROE of 30 per cent would be possible if the low return sectors of banking were jettisoned.

Bottom line: there may be a great deal of upside in Australian banking industry returns.

Top risk: industry leaders are missing an opportunity.