Optimism informs Westpac forecast

Westpac has forecast growth in credit that implies the recent adverse trends in housing finance will quickly abate.

In the investor discussion pack published yesterday, in connection with its March 2011 profit announcement, Westpac said it expected:

-- private credit growth in Australia of five per cent in 2011 and six per cent in 2012

-- business credit growth of two per cent in 2011 and five per cent in 2012, as business investment picks up

-- housing credit growth of seven per cent in 2011 and 2012

The housing growth forecast compares with the most recent trends disclosed in the monthly financial aggregates published by the Reserve Bank of Australia, which put growth in credit for housing at 0.4 per cent for the month and at 6.6 per cent for the year to March 2011. This is the lowest level of growth, on a 12-month basis, in housing credit since this series began in the late 1970s.