Rate rise odds-on, but not a cert 05 October 2010 5:35PM David Walker Financial markets continue to believe signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia foreshadow a 0.25 per cent rate rise today. "Ongoing hawkish rhetoric from senior RBA staff members, and hawkish noise from well-known RBA-watching journalists, has placed the markets on notice for some pre-emptive RBA tightening," said TD Securities economist Annette Beacher yesterday. TD Securities argues a benign inflation environment justifies keeping rates on hold. But others are concerned that inflation remains at the top of the RBA's band as commodity prices continue to strengthen. Strong labour market figures and signs of better-than-expected Chinese growth are also expected to encourage an RBA move. Mortgage broker AFG released figures showing the value of September mortgages was 20 per cent down on the same time last year. Demand for new loans through AFG has dropped for four out of the last five months. "Another rate rise could have serious ramifications on the [housing] market," it said. The RBA, though, has said it would like household spending to moderate, including spending on housing.