BNP sees 'shocking' future for banking sector

Pessimism and pragmatism may be deeply rooted in the banking sector, with the likelihood of "economic shocks in domestic or global markets" rated a key concern among Australian bank leaders surveyed by European banking giant BNP.

BNP Paribas said it surveyed 115 C-suite executives in April, resulting in this week's report: '2025: The Future of Wholesale Banking - and What it Means for Australia'.

Respondents were "from the financial services sector plus a broad spectrum of other industries," BNP said. All responses were provided anonymously.

They key findings border on the startling.

"Another economic shock is considered a sure thing and a key concern" for 55 per cent of respondents, the report said.

In a decade global economic growth is likely to be stable or slightly lower than today, according to most leaders of our financial institutions, BNP said, although "corporates are less optimistic and forecasting growth well below historical trends in 2025."

BNP listed as "the top five issues in 2025 for the finance industry":

-- "economic shocks", cited by 55 per cent;

-- "delivering sustainable returns to shareholders and business owners" (49 per cent);

-- "national economic growth" (47 per cent);

-- "keeping pace with tech developments" (39 per cent); and

-- "regulators" (35 per cent).

The report also suggests the fintech fashion is being taken seriously, but not overblown.

Sixteen per cent listed "rationalisation due to new and disruptive providers," while 19 per cent mentioned "increased digital delivery", something  corporates especially welcomed.

Mergers to drive scale - described by BNP as "consolidation and increasing domination by global players" - received a tick from ten per cent in the survey.