RMBS arrears and outstandings in decline

Last week, Standard & Poor's released its RMBS arrears statistics for November 2009. There has been little change in prime arrears over the last three months, with arrears of more than 30 days coming in at 1.26 per cent of outstandings. This compares with 1.27 per cent in October and 1.25 per cent in September.

In the meantime though, total outstandings continue to decline and were at A$95.3 billion at the end of November.

Arrears of more than 30 days have not been under one per cent since November 2007 and it seems it will be some time yet before this level is seen again. We are now approaching the time of the seasonal increase in arrears, interest rates are set to rise for the fourth month in succession and it will be some time yet before the declining trend in outstanding RMBS turns around.

Nevertheless, subprime arrears are continuing to fall steadily. Arrears of more than 30 days stood at 10.9 per cent at the end of November. Six months earlier the percentage was 15.09 per cent. The decline in arrears has outstripped the decline in outstandings, 41 per cent to 18 per cent.

The biggest declines have been in the more than 60 days (-37 per cent) and more than 90 days categories (-28 per cent). This would suggest a relatively efficient move to mortgagee-in-possession status for properties with arrears of more than 90 days and a considerable incentive for those that were getting close to that point to regularise their loans.