Payments plunge tests all

Ian Rogers

ATM withdrawals are down by as much as 70 per cent in Sydney, and confidence measures nationwide are souring as the Covid-19 lockdowns look set to be extended in Melbourne and Sydney.

If payments volumes are any guide, Australian business was already reeling in July.

The RBA’s Real-time Gross Settlement statistics show payments volumes plummeted 27 per cent over the three months to July; the Jobkeeper employment subsidy finished in late March.

The RBA’s retail payments data this week (for June rather than July) shows total card purchases fell 1.2 per cent in June while the value of ATM withdrawals was down 6.2per cent.

The starker slump cited at the top of this article is from Next Payments and relates numbers, not values of withdrawals, over the initial period of the NSW lockdowns.

Surprisingly, ASIC and AFSA data on insolvencies and administrations remain tame, more than 18 months into the pandemic.

Patrick Coghlan, CEO of CreditorWatch, puts this down to continuing forbearance on the part of the ATO, banks and ASIC itself (over unpaid fees).

“Actions by the ATO are almost nil ….and ASIC are not being aggressive,” Coghlan told Banking Day.

“Australian business are being patient….and understanding of their creditors.”

At the peak of forbearance by banks this time last year around 12 per cent of big banks’ loans were in deferrals.