Banks may have a competition problem, but an examination of interest rate rises shows no obvious collusive pattern of "taking turns" by the big four banks.
Joshua Gans, an economics professor at the Melbourne Business School and currently a visiting scholar at Harvard University, had a research assistant list the first mover in all rate rises since 1996.
The data shows that "there is no apparent pattern of taking turns", Gans said yesterday in a post at his website,
economics.com.au. The
data showed that CBA moved first 16 times compared to just seven for ANZ; NAB and Westpac both moved first 11 times. Banks also changed their behaviour over time: CBA, for instance, frequently led moves from 1996 to 2001 and then was never the first mover for a six-year period from 2001.
Over the period, the four major banks shared the 'first mover' honours (although not equally) — CBA (16), NAB (11), ANZ (7), Westpac (11).
Gans does not believe competition is working in the banking industry. However, he blogged: "The data is available for others to look for a pattern or a conspiracy. For now, I can't see it."